Medvedev vs Aliassime Prediction: Stats, Form & Winner Forecast
Head-to-Head (H2H)
- Overall: Medvedev leads 6-0.
- All Finals: Medvedev leads 2-0.
- Hard Courts: Medvedev leads 4-0.
- Grass Courts: Medvedev leads 1-0 (Wimbledon 2022).
- Last Meeting: Vienna 2023 Final: Medvedev won 7-6(7), 7-5.
2024 Form Highlights
- Daniil Medvedev (WR #5): Reached final in Dubai (Champion), Indian Wells, Miami, and Wimbledon Quarterfinalist. 32-9 win/loss record before Wimbledon. Shown trademark resilience.
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (WR #17): Improving results. Rotterdam SF, Lyon SF, Queen’s Club SF. Reached Wimbledon 4th Rd for first time. 23-16 win/loss record before Wimbledon. Serve and confidence gradually returning.
Key Statistical Comparison (2024 Season)
- Serve Games Won: Medvedev 79%, Aliassime 80%. Comparable effectiveness.
- Return Games Won: Medvedev 30%, Aliassime 18%. Medvedev’s significant advantage in disrupting opponents.
- Break Points Converted: Medvedev 41%, Aliassime 39%. Similar conversion under pressure.
- Points Won on First Serve: Aliassime 75%, Medvedev 73%. Minor edge for Felix.
- Points Won on Second Serve: Medvedev 56%, Aliassime 52%. Key defensive strength for Medvedev.
Playing Styles & Matchup Dynamics
- Medvedev: Supreme defender and counter-puncher. Deep return position excels at neutralizing power, especially on slower courts. Elite stamina and tactical flexibility. Prefers hard courts but adapting well on grass.
- Aliassime: Power baseliner with a potent serve and forehand. Relies on dictating play and hitting winners. Historically struggles with Medvedev’s deep court positioning and consistency. Improved defense and point construction in 2024. Grass suits his strengths.
- The Matchup: Medvedev’s unique ability to absorb pace and extend rallies severely tests Aliassime’s consistency and decision-making. Felix must serve exceptionally and take risks early in rallies to avoid Medvedev’s grinding patterns. Grass gives Felix slightly more reward for aggressive play but Medvedev has proven effective here.
Forecast & Most Probable Winner
Despite Aliassime’s improved form and the grass surface offering him advantages (bigger serve, easier forehand winners), the overwhelming historical dominance and stylistic mismatch favor Medvedev. Aliassime’s challenges in consistently winning baseline exchanges against Medvedev’s impenetrable defense and ability to force errors remain significant hurdles.
Most Likely Outcome: Daniil Medvedev to win in 4 sets.
Key Factors:
- Aliassime’s serving performance must be elite.
- Aliassime must convert a high percentage of break points when earned.
- Medvedev’s ability to extend rallies and force errors from the Aliassime backhand is crucial.
- Mental weight of the 0-6 H2H for Felix remains a factor in tight moments.
