The prevalence of NU (Near Uncatchable) pass attempts in the NFL significantly influences game flow, strategy, and quarterback evaluation far beyond the traditional “strikeout” concept common in baseball.
NU Pass Definition & Impact
NU passes (also termed uncatchable incompletions or uncatchable targets) occur when a pass attempt is thrown where no receiver could reasonably make the catch. These differ significantly from drops (catchable) or tight coverage incompletions.
Accurate NU tracking is crucial for meaningful quarterback analysis:
- Purifying Completion Percentage: Removing NU attempts from total attempts provides a clearer measure of true pass accuracy (e.g., Completion Percentage Over Expectation – CPOE). A QB can be accurate despite a low raw completion % due to numerous NU throws.
- Evaluating Decision-Making: Consistently high NU percentages often indicate poor pre-snap reads, pressure recognition failure, or questionable risk tolerance, directly impacting turnover potential.
- Assessing Receiver Contribution: By identifying uncatchable throws, analysts can better isolate receiver performance issues like drops or route-running deficiencies.
Strategic and Game Flow Consequences
NU passes have immediate tactical implications:
- Drive Sustainability: NU throws are effectively drive-killers. On critical downs (especially 3rd/4th), they lead to immediate punts or field goal attempts, failing to extend possession.
- Field Position Battle: A drive ending in an NU incompletion on 3rd down provides no offensive yardage advantage before punting, potentially handing the opponent favorable starting position.
- Turnover Avoidance vs. Aggressiveness: While NU throws avoid interceptions (unlike dangerous tight-window passes), excessively preferring NU safe throws (e.g., always throwing it away) surrenders potential playmaking opportunities.
Performance Analysis Nuance
Understanding NU context refines evaluation:
- Pressure Effect: A high NU rate under duress may be understandable; a high rate from a clean pocket signals significant issues.
- Scheme Responsibility: Design flaws, poor route concepts, or receiver mistakes (e.g., wrong route depth) can cause NU passes independent of QB error.
- Arm Talent Limitation: QBs with weaker arms inherently have a higher NU rate on deep or out-breaking routes compared to elite throwers.
Effectively analyzing and minimizing NU passes—through improved QB technique, play design, and system familiarity—is essential for offensive efficiency and consistent success in the NFL. Quantifying and understanding these attempts provides a deeper, more accurate picture of offensive execution.
